Main menu

Pages

BITCOIN HOLDER COST BASES INDICATE CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS | by heidi

 



Historically the metric has been one of the most accurate market indicators in Bitcoin, as the relationships between short-term and long-term holders and the acceleration/deceleration of cost basis of the two respective cohorts is quite informative.


The short-term and long-term bitcoin holder cost basis ratio is trending downward, signaling a shift in market conditions.

The bitcoin price short-term holder and long-term holder ratio's 14-day change.


While it is true that short-term holders are still underwater in aggregate (relative to the average cost basis of the cohort) the market absorbed lots of realized losses during the last few months, and with a relative accumulation occurring, the STH LTH Ratio has flipped back bullish.


A backtest of the ratio over time speaks for itself:


The short-term and long-term bitcoin holder cost basis ratio is trending downward, signaling a shift in market conditions.

The bitcoin price short-term and long-term holder ratio's 14-day change.



Below is a view of the inputs that go into the ratio itself:


The short-term and long-term bitcoin holder cost basis ratio is trending downward, signaling a shift in market conditions.

The bitcoin short-term holder and long-term holder realized price.


Similarly, last Wednesday in The Daily Dive #144 we highlighted the bullish flip in the delta gradient, another market momentum metric.

reactions

Comments